Glossary
Advance estimate
An advance estimate is the earliest MARTS figure for a reference month, released roughly two weeks after the month closes and later revised in the MRTS release about two weeks afterward. The July 2026 advance appeared on August 14, 2026, so nowcast builders must expect the first print to move.
What is an advance estimate?
In US retail statistics the advance estimate is Census's first read on monthly sales, published under the MARTS banner. The MRTS/MARTS record states the cadence directly: 'Monthly (advance ~2 weeks after month close, revised MRTS mid-following-month)'.
An industry-brief FAQ adds the worked instance: 'MRTS publishes advance estimates mid-month (the July 2026 MARTS release appeared August 14, 2026) with revised figures roughly two weeks later.' So each month yields two vintages of the same number - the advance print, then the revision - and analysts quoting retail momentum should say which one they used.
Why does the advance estimate matter when choosing a dataset?
Revision risk is the whole story. A dashboard wired to the advance print will show one number in week two and another in week six of the following month; anything downstream - inventory plans, comp-store comparisons, revenue nowcasts - inherits that movement.
Datasets rarely label vintage clearly. If a vendor's retail feed mixes advance and revised values without flags, month-over-month changes become unreproducible. Free Census files let you hold both vintages and quantify revision yourself; paid feeds should be judged on whether they preserve vintage identity, not just on speed of delivery.
How do you evaluate advance estimates in a data source?
- Demand vintage labels. The source schedule - advance ~2 weeks after month close, revised MRTS mid-following-month - gives every value a birth date; insist yours carries it.
- Time-stamp against known releases. The July 2026 advance landing August 14, 2026 is a checkable fact; a feed whose July values predate it is mislabeled.
- Measure revision behaviour yourself. Archive each advance print and diff it against the mid-following-month revision to size the correction your use case tolerates.
- Prefer sources keeping both legs. Workbooks holding advance and revised series let you reconcile; single-value feeds hide the correction entirely.
Related terms
- coefficient-of-variation - sampling error context for survey estimates like the advance print.
- monthly-retail-sales-series - the workbook series where advance and revised values land.
Category context lives on the computer-electronics-retail data and housewares-specialties data hubs.
Frequently asked questions
When is the advance estimate released?
About two weeks after the reference month closes. The MRTS/MARTS record phrases it as advance ~2 weeks after month close, with revised MRTS figures following mid-next-month.
Do advance estimates get revised?
Yes - always expect movement. The July 2026 advance was released August 14, 2026 and revised figures followed roughly two weeks later in the fuller MRTS publication.
Datasets containing this field
Datasets containing Advance estimate
4 datasets carry advance estimate in the catalog. Open one, count the fields, judge for yourself.
Best Buy Developer API - Products, Stores & Categories
Google Dataset Search
Newegg.com - Electronics Retail Product Catalog (Scrapeable)
US Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS/MARTS) - Electronics & Appliance Stores
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